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Discussion in 'Non-Dama Drama' started by Cheech_Sander, Jul 28, 2017.
XRP followup a few months later:
History repeats itself!
Note that the $ value of altcoins is a somewhat useless measure. Most alts don't trade in $$/altcoin pairs, instead most of the volume trades in altcoin/bitcoin pairs. So it is more useful to look at the btc price of an altcoin, as the $ price of an altcoin will mostly change according to the $ price of btc.
The chart above is a perfect example. XRP hit almost the exact same btc/xrp prices in May 2017 as it did in Dec 2017, but people didn't freak out as much because the $$/xrp value changed much less (btc was worth much less at the time).
At any rate, most of the crypto market looks like the last couple months of the chart above, there is no cryptocurrency hedge against btc drops. So the question is: if the trend reverses and crypto markets turn bullish again, what will happen to all of the stupid ICO coins? Will they see wild returns again? Or will the market start to realize how useless so many of them are?
I think the latter.
As the market matures, there will be winners, and many, many losers.
The crypto craze has been compared to the dot-com boom in the late 90s. And for good reason. In 1999, if you had ".com" attached to your company, your stock would skyrocket. Similarly, a recent study showed businesses that included "blockchain" in their description showed immediate (unwarranted) stock gains of 30%. And after the dot-com boom went bust, we were left with about 5 "winners". But those winners took all.
Those winners were Amazon, Google, eBay... you get the idea.
Their victories were so enormous that if you placed a bet on them and 1000 other companies, and 999 of them lost, you were still in the black.
I expect to see the same out of this. I think there will be 3-5 viable blockchain platforms, which will shake out based off their use profiles. Their currencies will increase in value in accordance with the amount of use their platform gets.
@Cheech_Sander I agree, I'm not a 100% bitcoin maximalist, but I'm probably 95% of the way there. I think a lot of people make false assumptions and analogies, starting with the idea that cryptocurrencies are like competing businesses/products, when they are actually protocols for value transfer. The dotcom analogy you gave holds well to describe the market hype though! I saw some iced tea company that changed their name to 'Long Island Blockchain' or some shit like that, and their stock jumped like 30% overnight. LOL. I'd like to meet the people that bought that price up
I mean, if nothing else just consider this: does anyone really believe the future will be 100's of different appcoin / tokens? Where every application you use requires a novel cryptocurrency asset? Anyone who has managed their own crypto assets will understand what a terrible user experience that would be! Can you imagine if the average user had to secure and manage ten different cryptos in order to interact with their favourite apps? Not gonna happen
Consider this example: what if you had to use a different email protocol to communicate with certain people? You use Comcast as you ISP but your friend has Google fiber? Better run your email draft through an email exchange service, so that it can be encoded properly to send into the google email network!
^ I think most people can see why that sort of situation with email would be idiotic, obviously it makes more sense to just have ONE protocol by which messages are exchanged. Why would cryptocurrencies be any different? (In fact, the situation with cryptocurrency is even worse! A user mistake could mean a loss of funds, not just a corrupted email draft)
I think there is room for an argument to be made about the usefulness of the novel functions of a select few altcoins (eg ethereum as a turing complete decentralized computer, or maybe namecoin as a decentralized DNS), but most altcoins I've seen just promise the same shit bitcoin can do, but with flashy marketing and buzzwords added on.
Support DS via ETH:
We need a 1DSpike... vanity address!
Did anyone take advantage of the black friday sale on bitcoin? Serious discounts to be had!
I'm not super liquid right now or I would have!
We are in for another plunge close to $3k in the next few months but watch December 10th... Big announcement from SEC
Another ICO in trouble? ha
If anyone out there is running a lightning node and wants a discount on Terra stuff, hit me up! We offer a BTC discount normally (10%), but can offer a larger discount for LN payments. Just holler at me on here or by email (hit up the Terra contact page)
I have a little bit of inbound capacity (up to ~190k sats on one channel right now, ~$20), but would gladly offer a discount to anyone willing to open a new channel as part of making a purchase. Hit me up! (Even if you don't know what any of this means, but are interested in learning. Happy to help)